Nvidia's fourth-quarter earnings could trigger a broader correction for equities and crypto if it fails to live up to the hype.
AI-related tokens such as OCEAN and FET may also trade off Nvidia's earnings and outlook for the sector.

The bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto rally could come to a halt if Nvidia's (NVDA) fourth quarter earnings fail to live up to the lofty Wall Street expectations, Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a recent note.

"A key event today that could trigger a wider correction is Nvidia earnings which will be released after the US close," QCP wrote in a note. "As a major part of the S&P500 Index, Nvidia's performance could set the tone for US equities in the near-term."

Nvidia, the GPU giant that designs chips necessary for the AI revolution, is set to report its earnings on Wednesday after the market closes in the U.S. The chip-maker's stock is up nearly 220% over the last year. The market will be sharply focusing on the potential for the stock to sustain the face-melting rally. In fact, the rally has been so hot that Goldman even called it "the most important stock on planet earth" as options traders are betting on a move in either direction of 11%.

"Nvidia is currently trading at 90x P/E and Q4 earnings expectations have been adjusted higher recently," QCP said. For comparison, Amazon.com (AMZN) currently trades at 52.4x and Tesla (TSLA) at 57.7x price-to-earning (P/E) ratio, according to FactSet data.

With such a high valuation, the margin of error is very slim. "At these valuation multiples and high expectations on earnings, any disappointment could see a sell-off. That would certainly put a drag on U.S. equities and crypto prices as well," QCP continued.

Another crypto sub-sector that could see a volatile trading session from Nvidia's earnings is the artificial intelligence (AI) -related tokens such as Ocean Protocol’s OCEAN and Fetch.AI’s FET. Given the influence the chip maker has on the sentiment of the AI industry, crypto traders will be keeping an eye on assessing Nvidia's outlook on the sector and trade accordingly.

Analysts also stress how much of Nvidia's growth relies on the server industry at the core of the AI revolution.

Data from IDC shows that the global PC market is facing short-term challenges, with 2023 shipment volume expected to decline by 13.8% after a 16.6% drop in 2022, marking two consecutive years of double-digit declines.

However, IDC forecasts a rebound starting in 2024, driven by factors such as a commercial PC refresh cycle, AI integration, and recovery of the consumer installed base, leading to a projected growth of 3.4% in 2024 and a compound annual growth rate of 3.1% from 2023 through 2027.

Meanwhile, Taiwan-based Digitimes Research recently wrote that the computing sector's growth will plateau due to saturated PC and notebook demand, but emerging data centers are key to the future of chip companies like Nvidia, boosting server shipments and HPC chip demand.

Nvidia's stock is down 7% in the last week and is currently trading around $680. The majority of the Wall Street analysts have a buy rating on the stock with an average 12-month price target of around $751, according to FactSet data.

Bitcoin is trading at $51,200, down 0.4% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinDesk Indicies data, while the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), which measures the performance of the largest 20 digital assets, is down 1.9%.

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Sam Reynolds

Sam Reynolds is a senior reporter based in Taipei. Sam was part of the CoinDesk team that won the 2023 Gerald Loeb award in the breaking news category for coverage of FTX's collapse. Prior to CoinDesk, he was a reporter with Blockworks and a semiconductor analyst with IDC.