First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Awaits PCE Inflation Report

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Bitcoin consolidated above $61,000, lacking a clear directional bias before the release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). Economists expect the PCE to show the annualized inflation rate slowed to 2.6% in May from 2.8%, according to Bloomberg. While that would be the lowest reading in over two years, it is still above the Fed's 2% goal. "A lower-than-expected figure would suggest a continued inflation decline and potentially boost cryptocurrencies in the coming months," Valentin Fournier, digital assets analyst at advisory firm brn, said.

Solana's SOL token has outperformed Ethereum's ETH token this week after New York-based investment management firm VanEck filed an S-1 registration statement for its VanEck Solana Trust. "We believe the native token, SOL, functions similarly to other digital commodities such as bitcoin and ETH," VanEck's head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, wrote in a post on X arguing that SOL is a commodity, not a security. The consensus is that CME futures are a prerequisite for ETF approval, which SOL currently does not have. Meanwhile, ether futures have been trading on the CME for some time and spot ether ETFs are likely to begin trading in the U.S. in July. For now, the path of least resistance for the SOL/ETH ratio appears to be on the higher side. The SOL/ETH ratio has risen 12% this week, more than reversing the past week's decline in a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern.

Blockchain bettors were skeptical of President Joe Biden's performance in the first debate of the 2024 presidential election, pushing former President Donald Trump's odds of winning the November vote to as high as 67%. A contract asking bettors to declare the outcome of the election currently has close to $188 million on the line, with around $23 million on Trump and $21 million on Biden. A Trump victory in November could signal a shift toward more favorable regulatory conditions for the crypto industry, according to analysts at Bitfinex. “A Trump administration might prioritize creating a clear and supportive regulatory framework, encouraging innovation and investment in the crypto sector. This could lead to increased adoption of digital assets and a more robust integration of cryptocurrencies into the financial system, potentially spurring further growth in the industry,” analysts at Bitfinex said in an email.

Chart of the Day

• Google Trends, a widely used tool to gauge general or retail investors' interest in trending topics, shows that the value of the search query "NVDA" over the past five years is nearing the peak value of 100.
• A score of 100 represents peak popularity – the maximum number of searches observed for the query during a given time frame.
• The tool may be a good indicator to watch as the masses are often driven by emotions and frequently the last to enter a bull market and exit a bear market. In other words, NVDA and other AI-related assets might have peaked for the time being.
• Source: Google Trends.

- Omkar Godbole

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