Bitcoin Volatility Jumps to 3-Month High Ahead of U.S. Election

• Deribit's bitcoin volatility index jumps to its highest since late July.
• Implied volatility in EUR/USD and U.S. Treasury notes surges to at least one-year highs.
• Markets price a significant risk premium around the impending U.S. elections.

An options-based measure of expected price swings in bitcoin (BTC) has hit a three-month high amid indications from betting markets of a tightly contested U.S. presidential race in crucial swing states.

Leading crypto options exchange Deribit's bitcoin implied volatility index (DVOL), a closely watched gauge of expected price swings over 30 days, rose to an annualized 63.24%, the highest since late July, according to charting platform TradingView.

BTC's seven-day implied volatility, which captures the Fed meeting due Thursday and expected election results on Friday, has jumped to an annualized 74.4%, significantly higher than the 7-day realized or historical volatility of 41.4%.

That indicates "a significant risk premium around the elections," Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast.

Early Sunday, the probability of pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the critical swing state of Pennsylvania weakened sharply to 53% from 61% on the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket.

Meanwhile, the New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released early Sunday showed Trump and Harris tied at 48%, with Harris leading by two points in a Marist survey that includes undecided voters. In U.S. politics, a swing state is any state a Democrat or Republican candidate could reasonably take. The presidential election is due on Nov. 5, with results to be announced on Nov. 8.

BTC almost hit record highs early this week, rising to $73,500 Tuesday as betting platforms pointed to a comfortable Trump lead. Since then, however, Trump's odds and BTC's price have retreated, with the latter falling below $68,000 early today.

Vol spike in legacy markets

Options-based metrics, measuring expected price turbulence over four weeks, have also jumped in foreign exchange and U.S. Treasury markets.

The Ice BofA Move index, a measure of 30-day implied volatility in Treasury notes, jumped to 135% Friday, the highest since October 2023.

Increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury notes, which play a significant role in global leveraged financing, causes liquidity tightening and often leads to traders trimming their exposure to risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Elsewhere, the one-week implied volatility in EUR/USD, the most liquid pair in the currency markets, rose to its highest since the mini-U.S. banking crisis of March 2023.